Fashion And Beauty’s Race To Lock In Recycled Inputs

Two announcements this week, one from fashion, one from beauty, seem to be pointing in a similar, and illustrative, direction. First up, H&M Group has signed a multi-year agreement with Recover to scale its use of recycled cotton. Second, L’Oréal has become the first brand owner to join NEXTLOOPP Americas, a group initiative designed to help ensure the availability of high-quality recycled polypropylene, used for packaging. 

These stories apply to different materials but a common purpose: locking in reliable access to recycled inputs before demand outpaces supply. 

Recover’s multi-year supply agreement gives H&M predictable access to RCotton, mechanically recycled cotton made from industrial and post-consumer textile waste, at industrial scale. For L’Oréal, joining NEXTLOOPP ties the group into a cross-industry effort to secure access to high-quality recycled polypropylene (rPP), a move that makes it the first brand owner in the Americas consortium. 

Recent data helps to remind us why these pre-emptive moves are necessary. Textile Exchange’s 2025 Materials Market Report places global fibre production at a record 132 million tonnes in 2024, with synthetics accounting for roughly 69 percent of that total. Polyester alone makes up 59 percent. According to Textile Exchange, only about 7.6 percent of fibres made in 2024 were recycled, basically the same as last year. Around 98 percent of recycled polyester feedstock comes from PET bottles, and less than one percent of global fibre output is true textile-to-textile recycling. Despite widespread brand commitments, the share of recycled material in fashion’s overall mix has barely moved, which translates into a significant gap between the industry’s stated ambitions to work with recycled inputs, and the foreseeable availability of those inputs.

Virgin fibre output grew from 115 million tonnes in 2023 to 122 million tonnes in 2024, expanding faster than recycling capacity and diluting the overall share of circular materials, and most existing circular systems depend on feedstock from outside the apparel industry. The so-called “bottle ceiling” persists: nearly all recycled polyester continues to originate from post-consumer packaging waste, not old clothes.That bottleneck makes direct textile recycling both the industry’s biggest technical challenge and its most valuable commercial opportunity. 

The economic logic behind this behavior has been mapped out before. BCG’s 2023 paper Sustainable Raw Materials Will Drive Profitability for Fashion and Apparel Brands describes a shift from isolated initiatives to integrated sourcing strategies. The analysis identifies reliable access to sustainable feedstock as the strongest determinant of future earnings, companies that secure low-impact materials early will control both cost and compliance as carbon pricing and regulation intensify. BCG’s modelling indicates that late adopters could face about 8 percent of EBIT at risk from regulation and input-cost volatility by 2030, while early movers could realise around $100 million in cumulative profit upside over five years for a $1 billion brand. In other words, sustainability has become a logistics problem. The ability to produce within future legal and cost constraints now depends on whether recycled and renewable inputs can be guaranteed at scale. In plain terms, it comes down to this: if brands can’t find the material, they can’t make the product.

That forecast aligns with the market data now emerging across sectors. Forecasts published last week value the global recycled-polyester market at about USD 15.9 billion in 2024 and project it to reach around USD 38.5 billion by 2034, a compound annual rate above 9 percent. Key end-uses include apparel, packaging, and automotive, all expected to expand as recycled-polymer infrastructure scales. Each relies on the same finite supply of bottle-derived PET. Packaging, apparel, and automotive sectors are now sourcing from the same limited pool of post-consumer PET bottles, intensifying competition for recycled polymers. The circular economy was supposed to feed itself. Instead, it’s starting to look like a queue, and the biggest companies are at the front.

The dynamic extends beyond polyester. Recycled cotton is ~1% of total cotton fibre use; recycled wool ~7%; both are largely pre-consumer/mechanical. Regenerative and bio-engineered alternatives are advancing but have not yet reached meaningful scale (as tracked by Textile Exchange). Most major forecasts suggest a period of tight supply, with recycled feedstock expected to remain scarce and strategically valuable as demand rises faster than capacity. Brands locking in multi-year agreements are positioning to guarantee access, while those relying on open markets may face higher costs or uncertainty.

And verification will likely only compound the challenge. As more products claim circular credentials, proof of origin and composition is becoming as important as access itself. SGS and other testing firms report rising demand for carbon-14 (¹⁴C) isotope analysis to verify the biobased or recycled origin of materials, a method increasingly used to substantiate recycled-content claims. The EU’s Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR), in force since July 2024, establishes the framework for Digital Product Passports that will extend traceability from fibres to finished goods. Textiles are expected to be among the first sectors addressed under the 2025–2030 Working Plan, though exact rollout timing will depend on forthcoming delegated acts. Traceability infrastructure  (often the quiet part of any materials conversation) may end up deciding who can trade, and how credibly.

The convergence between fashion and beauty in this cycle’s announcements shows how cross-industry the issue has become. H&M’s cotton agreement and L’Oréal’s polypropylene commitment operate on the same logic: control the input, verify the source, maintain compliance. The companies’ public framing – sustainability, innovation, partnership – remains familiar, but beneath it sits a more pragmatic agenda. With new recycled-content mandates arriving across textiles and packaging, both organisations are positioning to guarantee continuity of supply.

The Textile Exchange figures highlight the systemic fragility. Total fibre output keeps growing, yet the proportion of recycled content barely moves, implying that circular capacity is being diluted by ongoing expansion in virgin production. BCG’s profitability model adds the economic incentive, and the current run of corporate deals confirms that the market is acting on it. Taken together, they start to paint a picture of a circular economy moving into its consolidation phase. Scale now depends on capital and access, not aspiration.

For the wider ecosystem of suppliers and technology providers, this consolidation will test business models built on openness. Mechanical recyclers like Recover, chemical-recycling innovators, and traceability platforms alike will face rising demand but also increasing scrutiny. As multi-year agreements proliferate and brands integrate recycled inputs into long-term sourcing, independent capacity could tighten, limiting open access for smaller manufacturers.The industry’s rhetoric of shared responsibility sits uneasily with the emerging reality of private loops.

The question for the coming year is whether regulation can keep pace with this shift. If recycled feedstock continues to pool in the hands of a few early movers, smaller manufacturers and emerging brands may find compliance impossible without secondary markets for verified material. That imbalance could slow progress toward global recycling targets even as headline investment rises. The European Commission’s upcoming enforcement of Digital Product Passports, and similar policies in the US and Japan, will determine whether transparency offsets concentration.

In the meantime, the momentum is unmistakable. The recent H&M and L’Oréal moves are not isolated gestures but signs that the market for circular materials is professionalising. Contracts are replacing commitments, and feedstock security – by any name – is becoming an operational priority. 

Sustainability used to mean rethinking design. These days it might just mean finding enough material to be able to design with in the first place.